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Daily Gold & Oil Trading Signals & Market Forecast: April 18

Gold Analysis

  • Recovery and Stability: Gold prices have shown a recovery in Asian trade, though remaining below the recent record highs. The metal's price surged last week but has stabilized somewhat due to cooling geopolitical tensions.

  • Influence of Interest Rates: The continued threat of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates is tempering gold's gains despite a slight retreat in the dollar's strength. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is limiting upward movement in gold prices.

  • Technical Indicators: Current technical indicators suggest gold is close to exiting the overbought territory. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a potential shift towards neutral, which could prime gold for near-term gains.

  • Market Sentiment: The lack of immediate escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict and the resultant reduction in safe-haven demand are causing gold to see profit-taking, especially after recent highs.

Oil Analysis

  • Price Trends: Oil prices continue to hover near $90 a barrel, supported by escalating Middle East tensions and restricted supply due to OPEC production cuts.

  • Inflation Concerns: With U.S. inflation rates remaining high, the oil price increase exacerbates inflationary pressures globally. This is evident as the European Central Bank closely monitors oil's impact on economic growth and inflation.

  • Energy Stocks: Energy stocks are benefiting from the higher oil prices, with significant gains in the sector. Recommendations include maintaining an overweight position in energy stocks to hedge against further price increases.

  • Dollar Strength: The robust U.S. dollar, buoyed by non-declining oil prices, continues to impact global currency markets. Higher oil prices could further strengthen the dollar, adding pressure on economies like Japan and emerging markets that are net oil importers.


Gold & Oil Trading Signals

  XAU/USD (Gold)  WTI (CL-Oil)  BRENT CRUDE (UKOUSD)  


XAU/USD Gold, A trading chart displaying the asset with two main indicators. The top panel shows Bollinger Bands overlaid on candlestick price action with a 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below, two sub-panels present the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), respectively. The RSI is within the neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD shows the signal line and the MACD line close together, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. The lower section of the image features a separate price action chart without indicators for comparison.
🟢 XAU/USD Gold

Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD)

  • Trade Direction: Buy

  • Entry Point: Buy around the current price of $2378.35

  • Take Profit: TP1: $2395 (just below recent highs), TP2: $2410 (close to the previous week’s surge levels)

  • Stop Loss: $2360 (below the daily pivot to account for volatility and potential rate-induced USD strength)

  • Confidence Level: Moderate

  • Indicator Analysis:

  • Bollinger Bands: Price is oscillating around the upper middle band, indicating potential for further upside.

  • Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the cloud, supporting the bullish trend.

  • ATR: A higher ATR reflects the recent volatility and the potential for larger price movements.

  • MACD: The MACD line is above the signal line but convergence suggests to watch for potential changes in momentum.

  • RSI: The RSI is moving towards a neutral stance, leaving room for upside before reaching overbought conditions.

  • Fundamental Analysis Insight: Gold’s recovery amidst cooling geopolitical tensions and the impact of U.S. interest rate policies on the metal's price have been taken into account. The reduction in safe-haven demand and the metal’s exit from overbought territory indicate a possibility for near-term gains.


An advertisement graphic for Vantage, a trading platform, offering a 50% deposit bonus to supersize trades. The visual features an isometric design with an oversized, three-dimensional arrow pointing upwards, indicating growth or increase. There are stacks of coins on the arrow, and a miniature office setup with a computer displaying charts, suggesting trading activity. A "claim now" button is included, highlighting the promotional offer. Trading risks and terms and conditions are noted at the bottom, alongside the VFSC registration number.



WTI Crude Oil, A trading chart displaying the asset with two main indicators. The top panel shows Bollinger Bands overlaid on candlestick price action with a 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below, two sub-panels present the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), respectively. The RSI is within the neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD shows the signal line and the MACD line close together, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. The lower section of the image features a separate price action chart without indicators for comparison.
🟢 WTI Crude Oil (CL-Oil))

Trading Signal for WTI Crude Oil (WTI)

  • Trade Direction: Buy

  • Entry Point: Buy around the current price of $82.21

  • Take Profit: TP1: $83.00 (just below the daily pivot), TP2: $84.00 (below recent highs and psychological resistance)

  • Stop Loss: $81.00 (below recent lows, to give room for volatility)

  • Confidence Level: Moderate

  • Indicator Analysis:

  • Bollinger Bands: Price is approaching the lower band, which could act as dynamic support.

  • Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the cloud, suggesting bearish sentiment, but with room for a retracement.

  • ATR: The ATR is indicating moderate volatility which is expected in commodities like oil.

  • MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line; however, the gap is decreasing, suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

  • RSI: The RSI is near the oversold territory, which could indicate a potential for price reversal or at least a pullback.

  • Fundamental Analysis Insight: The trading signal considers the current support for oil prices near $90 a barrel due to Middle East tensions and OPEC's production cuts. Additionally, the inflationary pressures and their influence on the USD are acknowledged, as well as the energy stocks' performance, which are factored into the current trading sentiment.


"Promotional banner for Vantage featuring floating currency symbols like the dollar, euro, and yen with upward orange arrows, indicating growth in Forex trading. Includes a 'Trade Now' button and a disclaimer about the risks of trading derivatives."


BRENT CRUDE (OKOUSD)  A trading chart displaying the asset with two main indicators. The top panel shows Bollinger Bands overlaid on candlestick price action with a 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below, two sub-panels present the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), respectively. The RSI is within the neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD shows the signal line and the MACD line close together, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. The lower section of the image features a separate price action chart without indicators for comparison.
🟢BRENT CRUDE (UKOUSD)  

Trading Signal for Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD)

  • Trade Direction: Buy

  • Entry Point: Buy around the current price of $87.52

  • Take Profit: TP1: $89.00 (approaching daily pivot), TP2: $90.00 (psychological resistance and close to recent highs)

  • Stop Loss: $86.00 (giving enough room below recent lows and round number support)

  • Confidence Level: Moderate

  • Indicator Analysis:

  • Bollinger Bands: Price near the lower band, suggesting potential for a rebound.

  • Ichimoku Cloud: Currently below the cloud indicating bearish pressure, but there could be an upside if it breaks back above.

  • ATR: Moderate ATR reflects ongoing volatility, which could lead to significant price swings.

  • MACD: Bearish momentum is indicated by the MACD line below the signal line, but the histogram suggests momentum may be levelling off.

  • RSI: Deeply into the oversold territory, which could signal a potential upcoming reversal.

  • Fundamental Analysis Insight: The signal considers the supportive factors for oil prices such as Middle East tensions and OPEC production cuts. The impact of inflation rates and dollar strength on oil prices, as well as the effect on emerging markets, are also considered.

 

Disclaimer: These Gold & Oil Trading Signals are based on the current charts and market conditions. Always conduct your own analysis and consider risk management strategies before entering any trade. Markets are dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly.



As with all investments, your capital is at risk. Investments can fall and rise and you may get back less than you invested.

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