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Daily Gold & Oil Trading Signals & Market Forecast: March 7

Gold News Bullet Points:

1. Gold Prices Surge: Gold prices have rallied to new records, achieving their seventh consecutive daily rise.

2. Spot Gold Increase: Spot gold rose by 0.5% to $2,159.79 per ounce, reaching a peak of $2,161.09.

3. U.S. Gold Futures Growth: U.S. gold futures saw a 0.4% rise to $2,167.00.

4. Influences on Gold Rally: Weak U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hints at potential rate cuts have significantly influenced the rally.

5. Disproportionate Market Movement: Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, notes the movement in gold prices might be exaggerated due to large futures buying.

6. Impact of Powell’s Remarks: Powell’s recent statements about likely interest rate cuts, if the economy evolves as expected, have boosted gold's appeal.

7. Gold’s Safe Haven Appeal: Lower interest rates and softening labour market conditions in the U.S. have increased the allure of gold as a non-yielding bullion.

8. Gold Price Predictions: Short term target for gold prices could reach $2,300, contingent on upcoming labour and inflation data, as per Macquarie's Garvey.

9. Central Bank Gold Buying: Jigar Pandit from BNP Paribas' Sharekhan predicts continued central bank buying of gold amid geopolitical uncertainty and global growth constraints.


Oil News Bullet Points:

1. Steady Oil Prices: Oil prices remain steady, maintaining overnight gains following positive Chinese trade data and U.S. crude inventory reports.

2. Brent and WTI Futures: Brent crude futures slightly declined to $82.88 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures edged down to $79.06 a barrel.

3. Positive Outlook from Chinese Data: China’s trade balance data indicating a 5.1% rise in imports positively impacts the oil market's demand outlook.

4. Impact on Global Markets: China's refined products exports reduction limits supplies for global markets.

5. Signals of Global Trade Recovery: Upbeat trade data from China suggests a potential turnaround in global trade, offering hope for economic recovery.

6. Crude Inventory and Fuel Stocks: U.S. crude inventories saw a lesser-than-expected rise, with significant draws in gasoline and distillate stocks.

7. Impact of U.S. Dollar Strength: A strong U.S. dollar could maintain the current oil price levels as markets anticipate the timing of U.S. interest rate cuts.

8. Fed Chair Powell’s Cautious Outlook: Jerome Powell’s remarks about uncertainty in continued inflation progress hint at a possible delay in interest rate cuts.



Gold & Oil Trading Signals

  XAU/USD (Gold)  WTI (CL-Oil)  BRENT CRUDE (UKOUSD)  


XAU/USD Gold, A trading chart displaying the asset with two main indicators. The top panel shows Bollinger Bands overlaid on candlestick price action with a 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below, two sub-panels present the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), respectively. The RSI is within the neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD shows the signal line and the MACD line close together, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. The lower section of the image features a separate price action chart without indicators for comparison.
🟢 XAU/USD Gold

Trading Signal for Gold (XAUUSD)

  • Trade Direction: Buy

  • Entry Point: $2,140.70

  • Take Profit: TP1: $2,155.00, TP2: $2,167.00, TP3: $2,180.00 (just below the psychological level of $2,200)

  • Stop Loss: $2,120.00 (just below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart)

  • Confidence Level: High, based on the technical indicators and market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

  • Trend Analysis: Short-term trend is upward, as evidenced by the consistent daily rise in prices and the current price position above the Ichimoku cloud.

  • Key Levels:

  • Resistance: Yesterday's high value was around $2,161.09.

  • Support: Daily pivot at $2,140.66, with further support likely near the Ichimoku cloud around $2,093.07.

Technical Indicators

  • Bollinger Bands: Price is currently near the upper band, indicating strength in the uptrend.

  • Ichimoku Cloud: Price is above the cloud, suggesting bullish momentum.

  • ATR: 10.441, which indicates moderate volatility—beneficial for intraday movements.

  • MACD: Histogram in the positive territory with a reading of 0.621 and the signal line above the MACD line, signalling bullish momentum.

  • RSI: At 83.71, indicating overbought conditions; however, in strong trends, the RSI can remain overbought for extended periods.

Market Sentiment

  • General Sentiment: Bullish, especially with the ongoing rally and positive market news.

  • Impact on Specific Asset: Gold prices are surging, with the potential to reach short-term targets around $2,300.

  • Notable Economic Events: Upcoming labour and inflation data will be crucial; also, the remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may affect the strength of the USD, which typically inversely correlates with gold prices.

Fundamental Analysis

  • The recent weakness in US economic data and the Fed Chair's hints at potential rate cuts are creating an environment conducive to gold's rise.

  • Marcus Garvey's point on large futures buying possibly exaggerating the gold price movement suggests a strong momentum which could lead to overshooting beyond justifiable levels.

  • The safe haven appeal of gold, especially with lower interest rates and softer labour market conditions in the US, adds to the demand for gold.

  • The continuation of central bank gold buying amid geopolitical uncertainties also underpins the bullish sentiment for gold.

The given technical indicators and market sentiment suggest a bullish outlook for gold. The resistance levels identified provide clear targets for taking profit, while the support levels help in setting a rational stop loss. The overbought RSI is noted, but given the strong market sentiment and the bullish momentum, it does not deter the confidence in this trade direction.


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WTI Crude Oil, A trading chart displaying the asset with two main indicators. The top panel shows Bollinger Bands overlaid on candlestick price action with a 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below, two sub-panels present the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), respectively. The RSI is within the neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD shows the signal line and the MACD line close together, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. The lower section of the image features a separate price action chart without indicators for comparison.
🟢 WTI Crude Oil (CL-Oil))

Trading Signal for WTI Crude Oil (WTI)

  • Trade Direction: Sell

  • Entry Point: $78.50

  • Take Profit: TP1: $77.00, TP2: $75.50, TP3: $74.00 (assuming a break below the Ichimoku cloud may lead to further downside)

  • Stop Loss: $79.50 (above the daily pivot and Bollinger Band mid-line)

  • Confidence Level: Moderate, considering the oscillating technical indicators and current market conditions.

Technical Analysis

  • Trend Analysis: The WTI is currently in a consolidation phase within a sideways trend, as shown by the Bollinger Bands and the Ichimoku cloud.

  • Key Levels:

  • Resistance: The daily high of $80.67.

  • Support: The daily pivot at $79.26, with further support around the lower Bollinger Band at $77.31.

Technical Indicators

  • Bollinger Bands: The price is currently around the middle band, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum.

  • Ichimoku Cloud: Price is hovering around the cloud, indicating a possible indecision in market direction.

  • ATR: 0.638, suggesting low volatility which may limit intraday range.

  • MACD: Histogram close to the zero line with the signal line above the MACD line, indicating weakening momentum.

  • RSI: At 49.17, near the midline, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Market Sentiment

  • General Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish due to the recent stability in oil prices.

  • Impact on Specific Asset: Oil prices are steady, but given the recent data indicating potential economic recovery, any positive news could swiftly change market sentiment to bullish.

  • Notable Economic Events: Global trade data and any further indication of economic recovery could lead to an increase in demand outlook and thus potentially higher oil prices.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Oil prices remain steady but may be influenced by global economic data and geopolitical events.

  • China’s positive trade balance data may suggest improved demand outlook which could support oil prices.

  • Crude inventory reports and refined products exports from China could have a significant impact on supply levels.

  • The strength of the U.S. dollar and remarks from the Federal Reserve may also impact oil prices.



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BRENT CRUDE (OKOUSD)  A trading chart displaying the asset with two main indicators. The top panel shows Bollinger Bands overlaid on candlestick price action with a 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below, two sub-panels present the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), respectively. The RSI is within the neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD shows the signal line and the MACD line close together, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. The lower section of the image features a separate price action chart without indicators for comparison.
🟢BRENT CRUDE (UKOUSD)  

Trading Signal for Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD)

  • Trade Direction: Sell

  • Entry Point: $83.45

  • Take Profit: TP1: $82.00, TP2: $81.00, TP3: $79.50 (close to the lower Bollinger Band and psychological support levels)

  • Stop Loss: $84.60 (just above the upper Bollinger Band)

  • Confidence Level: Moderate, based on the current technical indicators and mixed market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

  • Trend Analysis: The current price action suggests a lack of upward momentum and potential for a reversal.

  • Key Levels:

  • Resistance: Upper Bollinger Band at $84.55.

  • Support: Yesterday's pivot at $82.63, further supported by the Ichimoku cloud.

Technical Indicators

  • Bollinger Bands: The price consolidating around the middle band could indicate a potential downturn.

  • Ichimoku Cloud: Price just above the cloud could suggest minimal bullish support.

  • ATR: At 0.600, showing low to moderate volatility, conducive for targeting smaller moves.

  • MACD: The histogram is barely above zero, with the signal line almost crossing below the MACD line, indicating decreasing bullish momentum.

  • RSI: Near the neutral 50 level, suggesting the recent price action has not been strongly directional.

Market Sentiment

  • General Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish given the price stability and potential for downside.

  • Impact on Specific Asset: With stable market conditions, any negative news or increase in supply could tip the balance to the downside.

  • Notable Economic Events: Monitoring geopolitical tensions and global economic data, especially with regards to energy consumption and supply, will be important.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Given the consolidation phase, Brent is susceptible to shifts in fundamental news or changes in sentiment.

  • The stability of the oil market at present does not preclude a sell signal based on the observed potential for a downward price movement.

  • Key geopolitical or economic reports could provide further direction.

The recommendation to sell is based on the current positioning of technical indicators and the understanding that market sentiment is leaning towards a bearish bias in the absence of strong bullish signals. The stop loss is placed just above recent highs to protect against a potential uptrend, while take profit levels are set conservatively to account for the current market's lower volatility.

 

Disclaimer: These Gold & Oil Trading Signals are based on the current charts and market conditions. Always conduct your own analysis and consider risk management strategies before entering any trade. Markets are dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly.


As with all investments, your capital is at risk. Investments can fall and rise and you may get back less than you invested.

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