Daily Market Wrap & Trade Signals – US Election Edition

Good morning, traders! Markets are buzzing as the US presidential election ramps up, with the latest market insights and actionable trade signals below. Let’s dive in! 📉📈

📰 Today’s Top Market Stories:

🇺🇸 US Election in Focus:

US stock futures are up, as markets await election results in the tight race between Trump and Harris. The S&P 500 closed lower on Monday, but contracts on US stocks climbed 0.1% overnight. The potential for post-election volatility is high, especially as polls show a near 50-50 split. A contested outcome could bring heightened market swings, while a Fed rate decision looms later in the week.

📉 Dollar Steady, AUD Holds Rates:

The US Dollar remains steady as traders wait on election outcomes and possible Fed rate changes. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, though it did note a “high level of uncertainty” in the international outlook.

🇨🇳 China Market Jumps:

Chinese stocks surged over 2%, leading Asian gains, as economic data showed a strong uptick in services. Japan’s Nikkei also rose post-holiday, while Australia and South Korea saw mixed reactions. Chinese officials hinted at policy measures to support growth, boosting investor confidence.

✈️ Boeing Strike Ends:

Boeing workers accepted a new contract, ending a 53-day strike that disrupted production. This resolution could help Boeing stabilize operations and improve its financials.

💡 Hedge Funds Eye USD Volatility:

With close polling in swing states, hedge funds are positioning for a possible weaker dollar if Harris wins. Conversely, a Trump win could see a short-term dollar surge of 1-2%.

📈 Key Global Events this Week:

US Presidential Election & Fed Rate Decision (Tues/Thurs)

Eurozone Retail Sales & ECB President Lagarde's Speech (Thurs)

BOE Rate Decision (UK) and US Initial Jobless Claims (Thurs)

Canada Employment & Chile CPI (Fri)

📊 Commodities Update:

Gold: Prices are steady, close to highs as safe-haven demand holds.

Oil: In a holding pattern as markets turn toward US election results.

Bitcoin: Rose 2% as interest continues amid uncertain traditional markets.

📈 Trade Signals:

⚠️ Note: Increased volatility expected around the US election. Stick to set targets and use protective stops.

🔹 AUD/USD

Pivot: 0.6605

Our Preference: 🔴 Sell below 0.6605

Targets: 0.6570 & 0.6555

Alternative: 🟢 Buy above 0.6605

Targets: 0.6620 & 0.6635

Note: Resistance at 0.6605 likely to cap upward potential.

🔹 GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.2980

Our Preference: 🔴 Sell below 1.2980

Targets: 1.2930 & 1.2910

Alternative: 🟢 Buy above 1.2980

Targets: 1.3000 & 1.3030

Note: Risk of downside persists if resistance at 1.2980 holds.

🔹 USD/JPY

Pivot: 151.80

Our Preference: 🟢 Buy above 151.80

Targets: 152.70 & 153.10

Alternative: 🔴 Sell below 151.80

Targets: 151.50 & 151.30

Note: RSI suggests continued upside momentum.

🔹 EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.0900

Our Preference: 🔴 Sell below 1.0900

Targets: 1.0850 & 1.0830

Alternative: 🟢 Buy above 1.0900

Targets: 1.0915 & 1.0930

Note: Resistance at 1.0900 continues to add pressure.

🔹 Dow Jones (CME)‎ (Z4)

Pivot: 42050.00

Our Preference: 🔴 Sell below 42050.00

Targets: 41770.00 & 41630.00

Alternative: 🟢 Buy above 42050.00

Targets: 42200.00 & 42320.00

Note: RSI below 50 signals continued downside.

🔹 Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (Z4)

Pivot: 70.85

Our Preference: 🟢 Buy above 70.85

Targets: 72.30 & 72.80

Alternative: 🔴 Sell below 70.85

Targets: 70.35 & 69.70

Note: RSI above 50, showing support remains strong.

🔹 Gold

Pivot: 2740.00

Our Preference: 🔴 Sell below 2740.00

Targets: 2725.00 & 2717.00

Alternative: 🟢 Buy above 2740.00

Targets: 2748.00 & 2755.00

Note: Resistance at 2740.00 adds pressure for potential downside.

🔹 Bitcoin/USD

Pivot: 67550

Our Preference: 🟢 Buy above 67550

Targets: Continuation above

Alternative: 🔴 Sell below 67550

Targets: 66590 & 66010

Note: RSI and MACD above moving averages; bullish outlook.

⚠️ Election Tip: Watch for volatile movements, especially in USD pairs and major US indices. Use set targets and proceed cautiously.