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Forex Made Simple: Yen's Slide and Central Bank Meetings in Focus

Welcome to "Forex Made Simple" by Chump Profit, where we break down the latest forex market movements in easy-to-understand terms. In today's update, we'll explore the yen's recent slide against the dollar and its implications, along with the upcoming central bank meetings in the U.S. and Europe that are keeping traders on their toes.

person hands shown count yen Japanese dollar bills in their hands

Yen's Slide on BOJ Policy Report:

The yen experienced weakness against the dollar following a recent Reuters report revealing that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is inclined to maintain its key yield control policy unchanged during the upcoming meeting. The central bank's policymakers are treading cautiously and prefer to analyse more data before considering any policy adjustments. As a result of this report, the dollar recorded its most significant one-day gain against the yen since April, reaching a nearly two-week high of 141.91.

USD/JPY 4 hour chart Bar chart showing forex and commodities prices, green/red candles depict daily trading trends. Includes moving average, Bollinger bands, and RSI.
Yen falls significantly over a few hours

Japan's Inflation Figures and Market Speculation:

Earlier data indicated that Japan's core inflation matched market expectations at 3.3%, remaining ahead of the BOJ's 2% target. This has sparked market speculation that the central bank might consider tweaking its yield curve control policy during the scheduled July 27-28 meeting. Consequently, Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield dipped to its lowest level since July 6, reflecting heightened anticipation among traders.

Global Central Bank Meetings: Forex Made Simple

Investors are closely monitoring the central bank meetings in Europe and the United States next week to gain insights into their respective monetary policy outlooks. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with money markets pricing in a 96% probability of this hike. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is also anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on July 27, with a majority of economists now foreseeing another hike in September.

The Dollar's Performance and Euro's Stability:

During the latest trading session, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against major peers, registered a 0.3% increase, contributing to a 1.1% weekly gain, the highest in two months. Conversely, the euro exhibited relative stability against the dollar. However, the pound resumed its slide despite earlier gains, resulting from stronger-than-expected UK consumer spending data.

Dollar index, DXY, Bar chart showing forex and commodities prices, green/red candles depict daily trading trends. Includes moving average, Bollinger bands, and RSI.
the Dollar remains resilient with a recent bounce

As the forex market navigates through central bank meetings and economic data, traders need to remain vigilant for potential shifts in monetary policies. As a newcomer, consider employing simple trading strategies like trend following, where you identify the prevailing trend and enter positions accordingly.

Simple Trading Strategies for Newcomers:

  1. Trend Following Strategy: Identify the prevailing trend in the market using tools like moving averages or trendlines. For instance, if the EUR/USD is in an uptrend, look for opportunities to enter long (buy) positions. Conversely, in a downtrend, consider short (sell) positions. Risk management involves setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses if the trend reverses.

  2. Breakout Strategy: Monitor currency pairs for periods of consolidation or sideways movement. When the price breaks above the upper resistance or below the lower support level, it may indicate the start of a new trend. Traders can enter positions in the direction of the breakout, using tight stop-loss orders to protect against false breakouts.

  3. Support and Resistance Strategy: Identify key support and resistance levels on the price chart. When the price approaches these levels, it may bounce back or break through. Traders can enter long or short positions, respectively, based on price behaviour at these critical levels. Risk management involves placing stop-loss orders just beyond the support or resistance level.

  4. Moving Averages Crossover Strategy: Use two moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day MA. When the shorter-term MA crosses above the longer-term MA, it signals a potential uptrend, and vice versa. Traders can enter positions in the direction of the crossover, setting stop-loss orders to protect against adverse price movements.

  5. Range Trading Strategy: Identify currency pairs that are trading within a well-defined range, with clear upper and lower boundaries. Buy at the support level and sell at the resistance level. Traders should be cautious of breakouts, as range-bound markets can shift suddenly. Implement tight stop-loss orders to manage risks.

Risk Management for New Traders:

Effective risk management is crucial for every trading strategy. Determine the amount of capital you are willing to risk on each trade (e.g., 1-2% of your total trading capital). Set stop-loss orders for each trade to limit potential losses. Never risk more than you can afford to lose, and avoid over-leveraging positions, as high leverage amplifies both profits and losses.

Successful trading requires a disciplined approach and continuous learning. Stay tuned for our regular updates on forex market movements, trends, and insights to simplify your trading journey! Happy trading! 📈

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Trading and investing carry financial risks and could lead to partial or complete loss of funds. Invest only what you can afford to lose and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have doubts about your investment choices.


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