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Intraday Forex Signals for WTI Oil with Fundamental Overview

Oil prices have dropped as Saudi Arabia announced significant cuts in official selling prices across all regions, signaling a potentially deteriorating global economic outlook.


WTI crude oil currency pair, A financial chart depicting the with technical indicators including candlesticks, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku Cloud, and volume bars. The chart also features an RSI indicator below, signalling recent market volatility.

Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply interruptions in Libya, which might typically bolster prices, the aggressive pricing strategy by Saudi Aramco, setting prices at their lowest since November 2021, suggests a surplus supply sentiment.


This move, coupled with Wall Street's trimmed forecasts for crude in the coming year and increased short positions by speculators, paints a bearish picture for WTI.


The market is also eyeing the annual rebalancing of major commodity indexes, which may lead to substantial selling in WTI contracts.


Forex Signals


Pair: WTI/USD


Trade Direction: Given the bearish fundamental factors and the technical analysis from the chart, the trade direction for WTI/USD is BEARISH.


Trade Probability: The likelihood of a bearish continuation is estimated at around 65-70%, considering both the technical patterns and the fundamental news.


Friday's Trend: The negative trend was observed as WTI prices fell in response to the Saudi pricing news.


Pivot Point: Based on the chart, the pivot point can be identified at approximately $72.00, which is also near the last closing price.


Indicators:

- Volatility: The Bollinger Bands indicate increased market volatility, a common condition during market uncertainty.

- Moving Average (MA): WTI is trading below the moving average, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

- Ichimoku: The price is positioned beneath the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market sentiment.

- RSI: The Relative Strength Index is trending downward but hasn't reached the oversold area, reinforcing the bearish bias.

- Bollinger Bands: With the price at the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, it suggests that WTI is in a lower price range which could encourage further selling.


🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:

- Sell: For those looking to capitalize on the BEARISH trend, profit-taking could be aimed at the 1st support level at $71.50, 2nd support at $71.00, and 3rd support at $70.50.


❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:

- Sell: Setting a stop loss just above the recent minor high or the upper Bollinger Band at approximately $73.00 could be prudent to mitigate the risk of a bullish reversal.


Conclusion:

The bearish momentum in WTI is underscored by a combination of Saudi Arabia's pricing strategy, bearish market bets, and technical indicators.


While Middle East tensions and supply disruptions remain variables that could affect market sentiment, current fundamentals and technical analysis suggest a bearish outlook.


Traders should remain vigilant, keeping an eye on geopolitical developments and inventory data, and employ sound risk management practices when engaging with the market when looking as such forex signals.


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Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.

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