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NEWS & ANALYSIS POSTS

Morning Brief: USD Bulls Defend 100, NFP and ISMs in Focus


This week, the USD Index is holding firm around 100, as traders focus on key US economic data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM reports.


Non farm payroll NFP on a USA flag

A positive surprise could trigger a dollar rally, while global markets remain volatile, with Bitcoin eyeing $70,000 and Ethereum struggling to break resistance. Oil prices rise amid Middle East tensions, adding another layer of uncertainty.


Key Highlights

  • The USD index remains well-supported around the 100 mark.

  • All eyes are on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and ISM data for potential market-moving surprises.

  • In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin struggles to hold above $65,000, while Ethereum continues to face resistance below $2,700.

  • Crude oil prices rise amid rising tensions in the Middle East, with WTI and Brent posting gains.

Market Overview

  • USD Index: The dollar continues to show resilience around the 100 level despite recent weakness. With ISM Manufacturing and NFP reports coming this week, a surprise to the upside could lead to a significant USD rebound. August’s stronger-than-expected ISM reports have already provided some tailwinds, especially in services.


  • Bitcoin (BTC): Trading at $64,433.6, down 2.1%, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $67,000, which could spark a rally toward $70,000. However, a break below $62,000 would likely result in a deeper correction​​.


  • Ethereum (ETH): Currently at $2,631.1, down 1.1%, Ethereum continues to struggle near the 200-day moving average, which sits around $2,700. A failure to break this level may limit further upside potential​​.


  • Crude Oil (WTI): Trading at $68.61 a barrel, up 0.63%, WTI has been buoyed by geopolitical tensions as Israel ramps up attacks in the Middle East, raising fears of supply disruptions​.


Asian Session Recap

  • Asian markets were mixed on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 plunging 4.6% following political uncertainty. In contrast, Chinese equities surged after the government introduced new property support measures, pushing the Shanghai Composite up by 6.7%​.


Economic Calendar & Key Events

  • ISM Manufacturing (Tuesday): The market expects a continuation of modest expansion. A robust figure may fuel USD strength, particularly if the employment component shows resilience ahead of Friday’s NFP report.


  • Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday): August's NFP surprised to the upside, with 140k jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.2%. A repeat performance could strengthen the case for further USD gains, especially if the unemployment rate dips below 4.1%​.


Market Sentiment & Technicals

  • EUR/USD: Currently trading near $1.1163, any USD strength from the ISM or NFP reports could push the pair lower towards $1.10. Traders are watching support at $1.1130​.


  • Gold: Hovering around $2,630/oz, the metal remains in a tight range, vulnerable to a stronger dollar if economic data out of the US impresses​.


  • Bitcoin: If Bitcoin clears $67,000, a move toward $70,000 is possible. However, failure to hold above $62,000 would suggest a deeper pullback​​.


Crypto Watch

  • Shiba Inu (SHIB): After climbing to $0.000019, SHIB remains in an uptrend, but it must break through the $0.000021 resistance to sustain its rally​.

  • Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum faces persistent resistance at $2,700, and without significant buying interest, ETH may continue to underperform Bitcoin in the short term​.


Conclusion

This week, market participants will closely monitor key US data points, including the ISM Manufacturing and Nonfarm Payrolls reports.



Positive surprises could propel the USD higher, especially as it holds key support at 100. In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin's battle near $65,000 will be critical for the broader market, while Ethereum's struggle at technical resistance could see it lag behind.


Risk Disclaimer

Trading forex, CFDs, and cryptocurrencies involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage increases the risks associated with trading. Ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice if necessary.





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