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S&P 500 Losses, Rate Decisions & NFP Preview

As we navigate through a busy trading week, today's highlight features a blend of corporate earnings, monetary policy decisions, and the constant noise around inflation and interest rates. Investors are also closely eyeing tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which could play a crucial role in setting the tone for markets and influencing expectations for future rate hikes. Let's dive into the details:

office with people looking at computer screens and charts

Stock Market:

S&P 500: Extended Wednesday's losses.

European Stocks: Fell nearly 1%.

Tech Sensitivity: Concerns over rising yields affecting US stocks, especially in the Nasdaq.

Dollar: Strengthened for the fourth day.

Bearish Mood: Influenced by Bill Ackman’s shorting of 30-year Treasuries.

Economic Indicators:

Jobless Claims: Showing resilient demand for workers and a strong American economy.

US Service Sector: Activity expanded at a more moderate pace in July.

Apple and Amazon: Earnings reports due later today.

Bond Market:

Treasury Issue: $103 billion of securities next week, slightly more than forecast.

US Credit Ranking: Stripped of its AAA rating by Fitch Ratings.

Long-term Debt: Described as “overbought” by Bill Ackman.

Notable Views:

Warren Buffet: Unchanged plans on buying US Treasuries, not impacted by Fitch move.

Bank of England: Key interest rate increased by 25 basis points, warning against inflation. Rates seen peaking below 5.75%.

Corporate Highlights:

Tesla: China deliveries slumped in July.

Qualcomm: Tepid sales forecast indicates weak mobile device demand.

Moderna: Raised Covid-19 vaccine sales outlook.

DoorDash: Record number of delivery orders in Q2.

PayPal: Profit shrank in Q2 due to souring loans.

Currency and Oil:

Pound: Weaker against the dollar after BOE's interest rate hike.

Oil: Rose after Saudi Arabia prolonged its unilateral production cut.

Bank of England Details:

Interest Rates: New 15-year high, with further action if inflation persists.

Inflation Target: The aim is to bring it back to 2%.Growth and Inflation**: Reduced growth forecast and raised inflation outlook for the medium term.

Economic Stagnation: Likely through to 2025, according to BOE forecasts.

Impact on Households: Average monthly payments for variable rate mortgages have increased by £489 since December 2021.

Overall Outlook:

A mixed economic picture with caution over rising yields and inflation pressures. Corporate earnings and monetary policies are being closely watched. Bearish sentiment prevails, reflected in market positioning and comments by key industry figures.

GBP/USD Bar chart showing forex and commodities prices, green/red candles depict daily trading trends. Includes moving average, Bollinger bands, and RSI.
GBP dropped and rose today vs Dollar

Final Thoughts

As we wrap up the trading day, markets are clearly operating in a cautious environment. The mixed signals in various sectors, inflationary pressures, and key interest rate decisions are keeping investors on their toes. Most notably, attention will now be squarely focused on tomorrow's NFP report.

The NFP figures will provide vital insights into the employment landscape, and they may indeed serve as a determinant for future central bank actions, especially when it comes to potential rate hikes. Strong employment numbers may support the argument for a tighter monetary policy, while a miss on expectations could lead to a reassessment of the pace of tightening.

Either way, the market is poised for volatility, and the path forward seems fraught with uncertainty. Investors and policymakers alike are balancing the risks, seeking the right measures to steer the economy amidst evolving challenges.

Stay tuned to Chump Profit for the latest analysis and insights on how these economic indicators are shaping the market landscape.

Investing in the stock market involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

Trading and investing carry financial risks and could lead to partial or complete loss of funds. Invest only what you can afford to lose and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have doubts about your investment choices.


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