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USD/JPY Forex Slump: Signs of Possible Intervention


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The USD/JPY foreign exchange pair experienced a significant dip, moving from 150.70 down to 149.90.


This rapid fall comes amidst rising speculations regarding an FX intervention by the Japanese government.



The Spotlight on the Japanese Yen During the early hours of the European session this Thursday, the Japanese Yen exhibited a noteworthy rally against its US counterpart.


Current trading positions show the USD/JPY pair with a marginal gain of 0.15%, now floating at the 150.43 mark. The chart below provides a visual insight into the pair's performance:


A Shift in Monetary Policy? Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently commented on this monetary phenomenon, indicating that such interventions are not inconsistent with the broader economic approach of transitioning funds from savings to more active investments.


The market remains on edge, closely watching the 150.00 threshold, as a breach could signal further actions from Japanese officials.


4. Pressure on the Bank of Japan The movement of the Yen past the 150 per dollar mark brings back memories of last year, with looming threats of governmental interference in the forex market.


This, combined with the existing disparities in US-Japanese yields, is placing increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to reconsider its monetary policies.


5. Officials Weigh In Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, reflecting on the current state of the currency market, expressed a heightened sense of urgency.


Such sentiments were further echoed by Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hideki Murai, who emphasised the undesirability of swift currency fluctuations. When probed about the potential for interventions, Murai chose to remain silent on the matter.


6. Market Expert Insights Koji Fukaya from Market Risk Advisory in Tokyo provided his perspective, highlighting the yen's ongoing weakness and its impact on the BOJ's policy decisions.


Key factors in play include the possible revision of the yield-curve control parameters, the potential removal of YCC, or the discontinuation of the negative policy rate.


7. A Look at the Historical Context Japan's previous intervention in 1998 saw a hefty expenditure of approximately ¥9 trillion (equivalent to $60 billion) over September and October.


The yen's performance this year reveals a depreciation of nearly 13% against the dollar, placing it at the bottom of the performance list among the Group-of-10 currencies.


USDJPY, Bar chart showing forex and commodities prices, green/red candles depict daily trading trends. Includes moving average, Bollinger bands, and RSI.

Trade Alert

🟢 Breakdown:

  • Direction: Sell

📊 Indicators:

  • Ichimoku: The Ichimoku Cloud indicates a potential bearish momentum.

  • RSI: The Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory, supporting the sell direction.

🎯 Profit Targets:

  • 1st Support: 149.90

  • 2nd Support: 149.50

  • 3rd Support: 149.10

Stop Loss: Resistance at 150.80 (Entry Price)


📊 Suggestion: Given the current market indicators and the recent news, traders might consider a short position on the USD/JPY forex pair while keeping a close eye on potential interventions and monetary policy shifts. Ensure to employ risk management strategies.



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Disclaimer: As with all investments, your capital is at risk. Investments can fall and rise and you may get back less than you invested.


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