Weekly Forex and Economic Market Update (Jan 25-31, 2025)

forex368 Forex Education
Jan 26
3 min read

Forex Outlook Highlights

USD (US Dollar):President Trump's tariff threats have stirred volatility, but the dollar’s downside correction persists as markets await Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where rates are expected to hold steady.

Key level: Dollar Index may target 105.25.

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EUR (Euro):The ECB’s anticipated rate cut is already priced in, boosting the euro against a weakening dollar. Resistance: $1.0560-$1.0575. Key event: Thursday’s ECB decision.

GBP (British Pound):Sterling’s recovery continues after testing $1.21 lows. Upside targets: $1.2575-$1.2610, driven by USD pullbacks. BOE’s possible rate cut could create volatility.

AUD (Australian Dollar):USD weakness and expectations of an RBA easing cycle support the Aussie. Resistance: $0.6400-$0.6440. Watch Wednesday’s Q4 inflation report.

MXN (Mexican Peso):The peso leads emerging market currencies as high interest rates attract carry trades. Dollar support near MXN20.1350.

JPY (Japanese Yen):USD/JPY remains range-bound (JPY154.80-156.75). A break above JPY156.75 could drive yen weakness, while US 10-year yields remain key.

CAD (Canadian Dollar):Bank of Canada’s expected rate cut may weigh on the loonie. Risk to the downside with USD/CAD testing CAD1.41.

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📆 Economic Calendar

Monday, 27 January

1:30 AM - China PMI (January): Manufacturing expected to rise to 50.3; services may fall to 51.8. Markets to watch: CNH crosses.
9:00 AM - Germany IFO Index (January): Forecast to fall to 84.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses.
1:30 PM - US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December): Expected to rise to 0.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses.

Tuesday, 28 January

1:30 PM - US Durable Goods Orders (December): Expected to rise 0.8% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses.
3:00 PM - US Consumer Confidence (January): Forecast to increase to 106. Markets to watch: USD crosses.

Wednesday, 29 January

12:30 AM - Australia Inflation (Q4): Prices expected to rise 2.2% YoY and 0.5% QoQ. Markets to watch: AUD crosses.
2:45 PM - Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Rates expected to be cut to 3% from 3.25%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses.
7:00 PM - Fed Rate Decision: Rates expected to remain at 4.5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses.

Thursday, 30 January

9:00 AM - German GDP (Q4, flash): Growth expected to be 0.3% QoQ and 0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: Eurozone indices, EUR crosses.
10:00 AM - Eurozone GDP (Q4, flash): Growth forecast at 0.3% QoQ and 1.2% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses.
1:15 PM - ECB Rate Decision: Rates expected to be cut to 2.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses.
1:30 PM - US GDP (Q4) and Initial Jobless Claims: Growth expected at 3.1%; jobless claims forecast to rise to 228K. Markets to watch: USD crosses.

Friday, 31 January

8:55 AM - German Unemployment (January): Rate expected to rise to 6.2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses.
1:30 PM - US PCE Price Index (December): Forecast to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Markets to watch: USD crosses.
2:45 PM - US Chicago PMI (January): Expected to increase to 37.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses.